Oscar Nominations Released
The Oscar nominations were released today. Last week, I talked about how difficult this year was for predictions since the rule change allowing between 5-10 nominees for Best Picture. Nine films ended up with nominations for Best Picture.
The Tree of Life
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Midnight in Paris
Here are the films I predicted would be nominated, correct ones are in bold
The Tree of Life
My Week With Marilyn
Midnight in Paris
A Dangerous Method
I got seven of the nine, not too shabby. I’m not surprised that nine films got nominated since I heard that it only took 5% of the total vote to make it onto the list. I said no to Moneyball, which in hindsight was a bad decision but I still don’t think it has any chance of winning. I am surprised that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was nominated, but again I do not think it will win.
There’s not really a clear frontrunner as of now. The Descendants won Best Drama at the Golden Globes and The Artist won Best Comedy. I don’t think this drastically enhances either one’s chance but as of know it makes The Descendants the frontrunner by default. I’m not convinced that the Academy is going to give a comedy-drama Best Picture since movies like Slumdog Millionaire and The Hurt Locker are two of the three most recent winners.
The Tree of Life is too weird to win and The Artist is too obscure to win. The Artist reminds me of The Queen’s nomination a few years ago. It’s a good movie but I don’t think it’s capable of getting enough votes to win. I don’t see Midnight in Paris as a serious contender either. If love for Woody Allen were rampant enough, it would’ve beaten The Artist at the Golden Globes. I don’t think War Horse is enough of a leap forward for Spielberg to warrant recognition.
So that leaves The Help, Hugo, and the Descendants as my serious contenders for Best Picture. All three are excellent films, but all three are also very unusual Best Picture candidates. Last year, it was pretty obvious that The King’s Speech would win. I don’t see that here, there isn’t a single film here that fits the bill of “Oscar movie.”
Could this be the year that an animated film wins Best Picture? I think it could be. Hugo wasn’t nominated for Best Animated Picture, which shows that the Academy is moving past the idea that any animated contender for Best Picture could be awarded Best Animated as a booby prize. But I don’t know if that will be enough.
The Help should be considered a front-runner, but I think too many people view it as a chick flick. The voting contingent has a male majority and it’s hard to tell how they’ll vote with the Help. The Golden Globes is a little looser with its voting habits and The Help didn’t win there.
If I had to pick, I’d say The Descendants has the best chance at winning. There hasn’t been a race this difficult since 2008, which also had no clear front-runner. It’s hard to imagine that this race will be more exciting than last year’s. The 2010 race has Inception, Black Swan, The Social Network, and Toy Story 3. This race may not have dream thieves, mentally unstable ballerinas, talking toys, or Facebook, but it does have many great movies. Plus, Billy Crystal is hosting. Should be a fun show to watch.
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